BJ Penn (15-7-1 MMA, 11-6-1 UFC) vs. Matt Hughes (45-7 MMA, 18-5 UFC)
How we got here:
When Matt Hughes and BJ Penn square off in UFC 123's co-main event on Saturday night, they will do so with almost seven years of history.
The pair first met at UFC 46 in Jan. 2004. At the time, Hughes was riding a 13-fight winning streak and had successfully defended his UFC welterweight title five times. Penn was moving up to welterweight for the first time in his career after two unsuccessful bids at UFC lightweight gold. Hughes had 38 career fights going into the bout, Penn had eight. Many people, including Hughes, expected it to be a squash match.
Of course, the expected and what actually transpires can vary greatly in MMA, and thus was the case that Saturday night. Penn blasted Hughes with an overhand right from guard, then took back mount and submitted the champion with a rear-naked choke. In just 4:39, Penn had stunned the world.
After winning the title, Penn left the UFC for other challenges, going 3-1 outside the organization while fighting twice at middleweight and once at light heavyweight. Hughes, meanwhile, rebounded from the loss with a unanimous decision victory over Renato Verissimo, then submitted Georges St. Pierre to reclaim the welterweight belt that Penn had vacated.
Penn returned to the UFC two years later and lost a close split decision to St. Pierre for another shot at the title. When St. Pierre was forced to withdraw from the title bout with an injury, Penn stepped in, setting up the rematch that Hughes had been looking for.
Hughes was nearly defeated by Penn again, giving up his back at one point and nearly getting submitted in a triangle/ armbar combination. By the third round, though, Penn's cardio was failing him, and Hughes was able to pound Penn out on the ground to avenge his loss.
The career trajectories of these two champions seemed to go in opposite directions at thas point. Penn dropped back down to lightweight and went 5-1 over the next three years, claiming the lightweight title and successfully defending it three times. Hughes went 1-3 after the bout, losing twice to St. Pierre and once to Thiago Alves. When Hughes finally fought longtime rival Matt Serra at UFC 98, many were questioning how much the former champion had left.
However, recent history has seen another reversal of fortunes. Penn lost back-to-back decisions to now-champion Frankie Edgar, leading some to question his team and training camps. Hughes has seen a resurgence, winning three straight bouts over Brazilin jiu-jitsu black belts Serra, Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeida.
The stage has now been set for two of the UFC's most storied champions to see who will claim the rubber match.
The keys for Penn's success:
Penn has made no secret that he will be the smaller fighter in this fight, tipping the scales at 170lbs a few days before the fight (most fighters would be around 180lbs a few days before weigh-ins). As such, Penn will rely on his speed and footwork to outbox Hughes on the feet.
'Improvement' will be a word to keep in the back of your head. Penn's boxing has come a long way since the last time he faced Hughes and he will enjoy having a speed advantage, something he did not have in the Edgar fights. Hughes will look to bully Penn in the clinch and on the ground, but Penn has proved difficult to take down in the past. If it does hit the mat, Penn showed in both of his previous Hughes fights that he is more than capable, submitting Hughes in the first fight and almost doing so in the second fight.
The turning point in the second fight came in the beginning of the third round, when Penn's cardio failed him. Cardio has long been the biggest criticism of Penn, but Penn has gone a long way to silencing those critics, going four rounds with Kenny Florian and five rounds with Diego Sanchez before finishing them both.
Now, the question with Penn is his mental state. He looked disinterested and confused at times in the second Edgar fight and his corner did little in the way of coaching to help settle those concerns.
However, Penn has made a career out of proving people wrong. If his cardio and mind are where they need to be, Penn has the tools necessary to right the ship and get back on the winning track.
The keys for Hughes' success:
Hughes has made his Hall-of-Fame career on being a bully in the cage, using his superior wrestling, strength and cardio to beat opponents down and break their wills.
After a brutal TKO loss to Alves, and a close but unanimous decision over Serra, many fans expected Hughes -- now 37 -- to retire. Dominant performances over Gracie and Almeida have changed those tunes, with fans now wondering if Hughes has enough left in the tank for one last shot at the title.
In his second fight with Penn, Hughes did exactly what he needed to do, outlasting Penn and pouncing once the smaller fighter was tired. Hughes needs to turn this fight into a grind, using his size and strength advantage to break Penn's spirit in the clinch. Penn's second fight against St. Pierre should serve as the perfect roadmap for Hughes.
Most importantly, Hughes needs to keep safe while on the ground. Penn has the high-level jiu-jitsu and flexibility to catch sweeps and submissions from scrambles and weird positions. If Hughes can settle in half guard or side mount, he will be able to pound away from the top while minimizing the risk of getting caught.
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