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The Match:
UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (13-1, 8-1 UFC) vs. Gray Maynard (10-0 (1 NC), 8-0 (1 NC) UFC)
How We Got Here:
Saturday night's UFC lightweight title bout between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard offers more for both fighters than simply the label of lightweight champion.
For Edgar, it is a chance to avenge his lone career loss, a chance to prove to odds makers and fans alike that, once again, he has been underestimated.
For Maynard, it is a chance to claim a title that many felt he had already earned but was passed over by Edgar. With a finish, Maynard can also silence the critics who bemoan the fact that his last seven fights --all wins -- have gone to decision.
Two and a half years ago, Edgar and Maynard met in a battle of undefeated prospects at UFC Fight Night 13: Florian vs. Lauzon. Edgar was 8-0 at the time, having won his first three UFC appearances. Maynard, after a failed bid to win The Ultimate Fighter 5, rebounded from a double-KO no contest in his UFC debut to win his next two fights and run his record to 4-0 (1 NC).
That night belonged to Maynard, who used his superior size and wrestling to take Edgar down multiple times. Maynard succinctly summed up his success in the fight, telling Joe Rogan, "I'm bigger."
Since that fight, Maynard has yet to taste defeat. He won his next five bouts -- all by decision -- including a win over Nate Diaz, the fighter that defeated Maynard on TUF 5. A recent decision over former number-one contender Kenny Florian earned Maynard a shot at the belt.
Edgar, meanwhile, rebounded from the loss with three straight wins, which earned him a title shot against the champion, B.J. Penn. In a stunning upset, Edgar outworked and outpointed the champion, even taking Penn to the ground. Penn was granted an immediate rematch, and Edgar turned in an even better performance. The victory cemented Edgar at the top of the lightweight food chain.
The stage has now been set for a match two and a half years in the making.
The Keys for Edgar's Success
Edgar has performed his best when counted out the most. When he steps into the ring against Maynard on Saturday, it will be the fourth time in his last five fights that he does so as the betting underdog. The problem with that, of course, is that Edgar keeps winning.
After his loss to Maynard, questions were raised as to whether or not Edgar had the size to compete with the larger fighters at 155 lbs. Even in his submission victory over Matt Veach, which earned him a shot at lightweight champion Penn, Edgar was bullied by his bigger opponent before locking in a rear-naked choke in the second round.
However, the sentiments about Edgar's weight seemed to changed in his two title bouts with the then-seemingly unbeatable Penn, first when stunning the world at UFC 112, then by affirming his win at UFC 118. In those bouts, Edgar used exceptionally quick footwork, a disciplined and varied striking game, and a perfect game plan to outpoint and outwork the slower Penn. And while some fans disagreed that Edgar won the first contest, he left little doubt in the rematch that he was the better, faster fighter, dominating Penn from bell to bell.
No longer was Edgar looked at as a featherweight masquerading as a lightweight. Instead, he was a streamlined fighter, trading size for speed, sacrificing bulk for the cardio benefits of not cutting weight.
In his first match with Maynard, Edgar looked to be the superior striker. However, he was never able to avoid Maynard's powerful takedowns, and that cost him the fight. In order to beat Maynard, Edgar needs to constantly be on the move, picking his times to engage and fire away with quick combinations, then circling away before Maynard can get hold of him.
Edgar tried to wrestle with Maynard last fight. While he did land one takedown, his double leg attempts were always stuffed, leaving him underneath a bigger, stronger opponent. He will not make that mistake again.
We've seen the discipline with which Edgar and his corner stick to a game plan and they will need to on Saturday. One mistake is all Maynard needs to score a takedown, and that can cost Edgar the round. If Edgar can keep things on the feet, he has the speed and boxing prowess to hand Maynard his first official defeat.
The Keys for Maynard's Success
Maynard's nickname is "The Bully," and it tells you everything you need to know about his fighting style. He is, in a word, relentless.
A three-time All-American wrestler at Michigan State University, Maynard comes equipped with some of the best takedowns in the lightweight division. As is typically the case with wrestlers, Maynard also has an unlimited gas tank, which allows him to pressure and grind on his opponents. These will be his biggest assets against Edgar.
The blueprint for Maynard's success was already written in his first bout with Edgar; take the champion down, do damage, and take him down again if he gets back up. Edgar looked more tired at the end of three rounds against Maynard than he did at the end of either five-round affair against Penn. How tired will Edgar look after twenty five minutes of Maynard's suffocating top game instead of the fifteen he experienced last time?
One predominant story in the media has been Edgar's evolution as a mixed martial artist, but Maynard is quick to point out that Edgar isn't the only one who has gotten better. Maynard's original skill set was good enough to beat Edgar last time, and his continued improvements could be enough to do it again.
