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Anderson Silva (27-4, 12-0 UFC) vs. Vitor Belfort (19-8, 8-4 UFC)
How We Got Here:
UFC 126's main event pits the UFC's most dominant champion against a former champion who was once anointed the future of the sport.
UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva is one of the top two pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and the UFC's most dominant champion. Silva has defended his middleweight strap a record-setting seven times, and has never been defeated in 12 trips inside the octagon.
Lately, though, Silva's title defenses have been highlighted less by his awesome skill set, and more by bizarre in-ring actions. After sleepwalking through a unanimous-decision win over Thales Leites, Silva moved up to light heavyweight and decimated former light heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin. That performance gave fans hope that the 'old' Silva was back. Those sentiments did not last long, and Silva's next fight against Demian Maia was filled with showboating and a general disinterest in engaging his opponent.
Enter Chael Sonnen, a trash-talking Oregonian who put Silva on blast leading up to their UFC 117 match. Shockingly, Sonnen almost delivered on his pre-fight promises, dominating Silva for four and a half rounds before a hail-Mary triangle gave Silva the win. It marked the first time we had seen the champion vulnerable, and it raised questions as to whether Silva -- at 35 years old -- might be in a decline.
A one-time training partner of Silva, Belfort burst into the UFC as a teenager in 1997, and looked unstoppable. Blessed with blistering hand speed, Belfort easily won his first three UFC matches, but was defeated by Randy Couture in a number-one contender match for the then-UFC heavyweight championship.
Belfort would rise again, even briefly capturing the light-heavyweight title from Couture with a TKO cut victory. It would be short lived, as Couture would take back the belt in a rematch. A subsequent loss to Tito Ortiz sent Belfort outside of the UFC.
Fast forward to 2006. Belfort had just lost a unanimous decision to Dan Henderson at PRIDE 32 and had tested positive for a banned substance after the fight. He was 2-5 in his last seven bouts. It looked like the sun was setting on "The Phenom" without him ever fully living up to his potential.
Belfort would rebound. He entered the Cage Rage promotion and won his next two fights, then dropped to middleweight and delivered two brutal knockouts in the forms of Terry Martin and Matt Lindland under the Affliction banner. The UFC offered Belfort a catchweight bout with former middleweight champion Rich Franklin, and Belfort responded by knocking Franklin out in the first round.
The win earned Belfort a shot at Silva and the middleweight belt. A shoulder injury would force him to miss that bout, but Belfort now has another chance to capture UFC gold while proving that he can perform on the biggest stage in the world.
What Silva Needs to Do to Win:
UFC president Dana White is not shy about proclaiming Anderson Silva the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. And while Georges St. Pierre fans might argue that assertion, there is no arguing that Silva possesses almost unworldly talent, at least when he chooses to use it.
That last point is what makes Silva such a frustrating and intriguing fighter to watch. When he wants to be special, he can do so with the flip of a switch. Prior to his 2008 match against Patrick Cote, there were no questions about Silva's heart, or his desire to finish fights. The champ had finished all seven of his UFC fights, with only two even making it out of the first round. But then a funny thing happened after Silva bumped up to light heavyweight and knocked out James Irvin in the first minute of the first round; the middleweight division ran out of credible challengers.
Cote, Thales Leites and Demian Maia were decent fighters, but no one could argue that they were on par with Silva. Rather than quickly dispatching of his lesser foes, Silva seemed almost incensed that they were even in the same fight as him. If the champ wasn't motivated, he was content to outpoint his opponents and minimize risk as much as possible.
Chael Sonnen provided the perfect foil for Silva, punching the bully in the mouth in the first round and continuing to do so for the next 23 minutes. One mental lapse is all it took for Silva to capitalize and win the fight, but the performance painted Silva in a light of vulnerability that UFC fans were unfamiliar with.
Is Silva past his prime? It is hard to say. Reports came out that Silva fought Sonnen with significantly injured ribs, which would explain his poor performance. Despite his age and 31 career fights, Silva has not sustained much damage throughout his career. Reaction time is the first thing to leave a fighter, though, and Belfort's quick hands will be a good barometer as to whether Silva has reached that point.
If Silva is at the top of his game, he figures to have an advantage on the feet and on the ground. While he might not possess the same hand speed as Belfort, his power, accuracy and movement will prove to be an equalizer. When Belfort gets in close to avoid Silva's reach, Silva can use the same Muay Thai clinch that he used to remove Rich Franklin's nose from his face.
Silva is a gifted grappler as well, and Belfort will not have the same sort of top control that Sonnen used with such effectiveness. If or when the fight hits the mat, Silva has the ability to finish there.
There is a reason that Silva has stood at the top of the mountain for so long. It can only take one moment of his wizardry to make fans wonder why they doubted him in the first place. Belfort is a game challenger, and Silva will need to bring his A game to leave with the belt, but when that A game is on, Silva is almost impossible to beat.
What Belfort Needs to Do to Win:
The talents of Vitor Belfort have never been in question. His biggest obstacle to success has been in his head.
When things are going well for Belfort, he looks unstoppable. As soon as things start to go south, however, Belfort seems to shrink rather than dig deep. The physical tools are there, but Belfort's mental game has held him back from greatness. When you look back six years, though, it is easy to understand why.
Three weeks before Belfort was scheduled to face Randy Couture in 2004 for the second time, his sister was kidnapped in Brazil. The horrors surrounding that event -- her body was never found, although a woman confessed to her killing -- haunted Belfort for years, and he was never able to truly focus on his MMA career. While fans and pundits were questioning Belfort's heart, his head was swimming with demons.
Now, with his head in a better place and a rebirth in a new weight class, Belfort could be poised to shock the world and unseat Silva as the best at 185 lbs. Make no mistake, though, this is not the first time that 'Belfort is back' has been written, and many are skeptical that Belfort will finally be able to rise to the challenge when the bright lights hit.
With that in mind, it is important that Belfort starts fast and succeeds early against Silva. If the third round starts with Belfort down 2-0, it could prove mentally devastating. Sonnen proved that Silva can be tagged, and Belfort's speed and boxing prowess should prove more dangerous that Sonnen's lesser striking abilities.
If Belfort wins this fight, he will do so on the feet. Despite being a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and Abu Dhabi bronze medalist, Belfort figures to be at a disadvantage on the ground against the longer, lankier Silva. Rather, Belfort needs to use his speed to move in and out of Silva's range, blitzing the champion with quick combinations and angling out before Silva can grab his patented Muay Thai clinch.
Is this the fight that Belfort finally puts it all together? If Silva smells weakness at any point, he will eat Belfort alive. But if Belfort comes out strong and focused, he has one of the best chances of dethroning the pound-for-pound champ in years.
