Brock Lesnar (5-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. Cain Velasquez (8-0, 6-0 UFC)
How we got here
UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar has become the biggest name in mixed martial arts.
Following his demolishment of Frank Mir at UFC 100, Lesnar looked like an unstoppable force. A near-fatal bout diverticulitis, however, knocked the champion out of competition for a year. When he returned, Lesnar survived a vicious onslaught from challenger Shane Carwin at UFC 116 before coming back in the second round to submit Carwin by arm-triangle choke.
Like Lesnar, Velasquez has left a trail of destruction on his way to the top of the heavyweight division. The former Arizona State University All-American D1 wrestler has finished seven of his eight professional bouts by (T)KO, and dropped Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in brutal fashion at UFC 110 to earn a shot at the belt.
The case for Lesnar
When you compare Lesnar and Velasquez, the first thing that stands out is the size difference. Velasquez typically weighs in at around the 240 lbs mark, Lesnar has actually had to cut weight to make the 265 lbs limit. Lesnar's illness, though, caused him to lose a lot of mass and he looked physically different in the Carwin fight than in fights past. Judging by the videos coming out of his camp for this fight, Lesnar looks to have regained a lot of muscle and should look more solid than he did in his last outing.
A lot has been made of Lesnar's inability to take Carwin down in the first round. Again, I attribute a lot of that to Lesnar losing muscle and strength during his illness. Velasquez is a better wrestler than Carwin based on credentials, but Carwin is a much stronger fighter. Don't be surprised to see Lesnar put Velasquez on his back multiple times in this fight.
Velasquez is the technically-superior striker, but Lesnar is a hard and violent puncher. The fact that Lesnar was able to take a barrage of shots from Carwin and (barely) stay in the fight also does not bode well for Velasquez's chances for a knockout. If and when Lesnar gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to wear the smaller Velasquez out en route to a TKO or submission victory.
The case for Velasquez
The key to a Velasquez victory revolves around footwork and cardio. We've seen Lesnar go three rounds before, but at a slow pace. A big body must burn more oxygen to keep moving and Velasquez will need to use his lighter frame to outpoint and outwork Lesnar early. If Velasquez is ahead on points after two rounds, he will be in very good shape.
Bob Cook and Javier Mendez are tremendous coaches at American Kickboxing Academy and they will have Velasquez ready with a good game plan. Velasquez will need to use his foot speed, darting in and out while landing combinations, then circling away to avoid Lesnar's double leg attempts and big right hands. Lesnar's boxing is still very raw and he sits heavy on his feet without much foot movement and Velasquez will be able to take advantage.
Don't expect Velasquez to attempt a single takedown in this fight. The risk of getting stuck underneath Lesnar is too great and would have fight-ending consequences. Instead, Velasquez will use his wrestling to stay on his feet, blasting away at Lesnar with quick combinations before wearing the champion down in the championships rounds.
The verdict
This is one of the hardest fights in recent memory to judge, but I believe Lesnar will eventually get the fight to the ground and finish it there. The talk of Velasquez's cardio and speed advantages might be slightly overstated. While Lesnar might not have the same foot speed that Velasquez does, he moves very quickly and has the explosiveness to get Velasquez down. Once they're on the ground, I have a hard time picturing Velasquez working his way back to the feet and that will spell the end for the challenger.
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