Jake Shields (25-4-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Martin Kampmann (17-3, 8-2 UFC)
How we got here
Shields enters the UFC on a 14-fight winning streak -- you can read our New Blood feature on him here -- and is coming off of a decisive victory over former UFC star Dan Henderson in April to defend his Strikeforce Middleweight title. UFC president Dana White said that Shields, who will drop back down to welterweight in the UFC, will "probably" be next in line to fight for the welterweight title if he wins his debut.
Standing in Shields' way is Kampmann, a Danish kickboxer looking to firmly reestablish himself as a top welterweight contender. Back at UFC 103, Kampmann was originally slated to face Mike Swick in a would-be number-one contender's match. Swick withdrew from the bout with an injury, and Kampmann lost by TKO to replacement Paul Daley. Since then, Kampmann has defeated Jacob Volkmann and the highly touted Paulo Thiago to run his welterweight record to 4-1 in the UFC.
The case for Shields
A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Cesar Gracie, Shields has been a mainstay in top-ten rankings for some time. Shields has not lost since dropping a decision loss to Akira Kikuchi all the way back in 2004 and has victories over top fighters like Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Daley, Robbie Lawler, Jason "Mayhem" Miller and Henderson. Perhaps most impressive is that Shields spent the last three fights fighting above his natural weight class of 170 lbs and dominated Henderson on the ground in a way we have never seen Henderson dominated before.
It's no secret that Shields wants to get this fight to the ground and utilize his world-class jiu-jitsu. He has already proven that he can hang with dangerous strikers like Daley and Lawler and was able to repeatedly take down Henderson, who is an Olympic-level wrestler. If the fight hits the mat, it could be Shields' for the taking.
The case for Kampmann
While he is typically type-casted as a kickboxer, Kampmann actually has almost as many wins by submission (six) as knockout (seven). Kampmann has showed that he can more than hang on the ground, submitting D-1 wrestler Jacob Volkmann at UFC 108 then outwrestling and controlling Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Judo black belt Thiago at UFC 115.
Kampmann's only two UFC losses are to Daley and top middleweight Nate Marquardt. If Kampmann can keep the fight standing, he will enjoy a considerable striking advantage. If the fight does go to the ground though, Kampmann's underrated ground skills can help him stave off Shields' submission attempts.
The verdict
This fight is closer than a lot of people are giving it credit for -- Shields is currently a -200 favorite in most betting circles -- but Shields' edge on the ground will be enough to control Kampmann and earn him a unanimous decision victory.
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