Lyoto Machida (16-1) vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (30-8)
How we got here:
Former UFC light-heavyweight champions Lyoto Machida and Quinton "Rampage"
Jackson will square off in the main event of UFC 123 in a matchup of conflicting styles.
Machida entered his first title match against Rashad Evans with an undefeated mark of 14-0, including a 6-0 run in the UFC. Fans had been critical of Machida's elusive style of fighting -- he had won four of his first five UFC fights by decision -- but a highlight-reel first-round knockout of Thiago Silva earned Machida a shot at the gold.
In a battle of undefeated fighters, Machida didn't disappoint, knocking Evans out in the second round to claim the belt and causing announcer Joe Rogan to famously welcome fans to, "the Machida era."
That era came under duress immediately in Machida's first title defense, against fellow Brazilian Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. In that fight, Rua had seemingly solved the puzzle of Machida's elusiveness, forcing the champion to engage first, then blasting him with leg and body kicks. In one of the most controversial decisions of the year, all three judges scored the fight 48-47 Machida, a decision that few fans or media pundits agreed with. UFC president Dana White granted Rua an immediate rematch, which took place at UFC 113.
Rua would not let the rematch reach a decision, scoring a first-round knockout and handing Machida his first career loss. Now, we will see how Machida rebounds after tasting defeat for the first time.
However, this could have been a much different story arc. Jackson was originally in line to fight Evans for the title, but injuries kept him from competing. The UFC opted to give the next chance to Machida, who took full opportunity.
When Jackson returned, he was offered a title shot against Machida. Rather than take the fight, though, Jackson elected to coach on "The Ultimate Fighter 10" opposite Evans. Taking Jackson's place in that title fight was Rua.
After a bizarre series of events that saw Jackson briefly retire to star in the movie "The A-Team," "Rampage" finally faced off against Evans at UFC 114. Evans controlled much of the fight to earn a unanimous decision victory, leaving Jackson 2-2 in his last four fights.
Now, Jackson and Machida will face off in a match that could have been for the title a year earlier.
After the jump, find out the keys to success for both fighters...
The keys for Machida's success:
While Machida has been unable to shake the 'boring' tag despite two of his last three victories coming by knockout, it is hard to deny that his style is effective.
Machida stands in a traditional karate stance and is at his best when his opponents try to come forward and engage. Like in traditional karate, Machida uses feints and leaps in when his opponent reacts to score quick points, then leaps back out of range before his opponent can return fire. This will be his strategy against Jackson; stay on the outside and outwork an opponent who has had cardio issues in the past.
Make no mistake, Jackson's cardio will be a big factor in this fight. If "Rampage" is sluggish in the middle of the second round, Machida will have no problem using his footwork to circle away from Jackson's powerful hooks.
And while Jackson has voiced concern about this being a boring fight, Machida's power is not to be underestimated. You can ask Evans, who was right in the middle of saying, "You'll have to hit me harder than that," when Machida connected with a straight shot that put him to sleep.
The keys for Jackson's success
Jackson is an aggressive fighter who likes to move forward and exchange. This may lead to some exciting performances -- which Jackson says is his goal -- but it also plays into Machida's style. If Jackson wants to win this fight, he will need to fight strategically.
Rua's strategy against Machida was close to perfect and Jackson should look to emulate that. Angle in without throwing punches, force Machida to attack first, then bully him on the inside. It is a strategy that requires a great deal of discipline, to a degree that I'm not sure Jackson possesses. If he can avoid the urge to brawl and fight smart, Jackson will enjoy a significant power and strength advantage. As we saw in the second Rua fight, Machida can be knocked out.
The biggest question mark about Jackson, though, is his cardio. After being out of action for over a year, Jackson looked very rusty against Evans. Against an elusive fighter like Machida, Jackson will have to use a lot of movement to cut off the cage and close in quickly. To do so will require a great deal of conditioning, something we did not see in Jackson's last fight.
There are a lot of question marks with Jackson, but there is also a lot to like about him. If his cardio and fight discipline are on point, he possesses the skills to end Machida quickly and violently.
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